Key Takeaways
We’ve lived in a Google-dominated inbound traffic world for almost two decades.
Is this about to change?
Will search still be the most important inbound marketing channel in the future? If not, what will be the new source of our highest intent traffic?
As inbound marketing leaders, how should we react?
These are the questions we’ve been thinking about and will explore in this article :
To succeed, we need to think in the short and mid-to-long terms to keep the results coming in both in the next quarter and two years from now.
In the short term, we need to examine what is happening to the results now, how traffic is being affected, and how we can do a better job driving traffic and conversions today.
In the mid-to-long term, we must watch the larger trends and see where they will likely shake out. Google’s Search Generative Experience (SGE) won’t matter if people go elsewhere for their information.
One thing is certain: people will always need quality information and still need to find trustworthy and accurate sources to solve their problems.
Therefore, search “in some form” must remain the significant inbound channel it is today; it may just look very different.
When thinking about changes to Google's market share, it’s not likely a matter of “if” but “how much.”
There are constant discussions about whether or not users will turn to tools like ChatGPT with questions instead of asking Google.
How fast is it changing?
Google has historically dominated search activity, often claiming 80-90% of search traffic.
Google is still dominant, but there has been a shift of a few percentage points from Google to Bing since the launch of ChatGPT and integration with Bing in the start of 2023. Image source: Statista
So far, Google hasn’t been hit too hard, but according to Statista, it lost 3 percentage points from Jan 2023 to Jan 2024, while Bing picked up half of that loss. While not yet major contenders in overall traffic, usage of tools like ChatGPT and Perplexity is increasing for professional and personal use.
Undoubtedly, Google’s share of search traffic is at risk in the long term.
But wait. Google doesn’t have a traditional moat in terms of a network effect, and the switching cost for users is extremely low.
So why hasn’t it changed so far?
First, Google has created a financial moat by maintaining “default” deals with manufacturers like Apple and Samsung. These deals keep Google the default search engine on many devices and create friction for users who may choose other platforms.
In fact, Google has owned the majority of search traffic for so long that the DOJ held a hearing to evaluate Google’s dominant market share and ended up ruling that Google has an illegal monopoly.
If Microsoft or other search engines disrupt some of these deals, a seismic shift could happen quickly.
Second, Google has done a better job of handling search than anyone else, and this will play to their advantage.
It will take a lot, but if a new player comes out that clearly does a better job than Google, public opinion and tool usage will shift.
So the question is, can AI search do a better job of surfacing accurate information?
There have been increasing concerns about the standard of AI content for answers to questions, particularly in light of Google’s SGE.
What to Know about Google’s SGEGoogle’s Search Generative Experience (SGE) uses generative AI to create quick answers and clear overviews of the user’s search topic right within the SERPs. Users don’t have to click on individual webapges; it’s almost like Featured Snippets on steroids. |
Sure, generative AI spits out confident answers, but the general public is increasingly aware of its tendency to pull content from low-quality sources, provide dangerously inaccurate answers, and flat-out make stuff up.
Answers like putting glue on your pizza to make your cheese stick better are making the news and making the general public more distrustful of AI. This has created distrust amongst many users, undoubtedly influencing user behavior.
As quickly as Google rushed out SGE, they started pulling back. In April and May, the number of search results without SGE elements increased from 25% to 65%.
Yes, AI is getting better and will continue to get better. But people want sources—accurate, expert human sources. So, they will likely turn to a solution that provides good and accurate answers backed up by trustworthy citations.
“As the cost of content gets increasingly closer to zero,
the amount of content gets closer to infinite.”
Google is ultimately best positioned out of everyone to deal with search spam that will happen with massive amounts of terrible (or even mediocre) AI content.
They still assess quality using core ranking factors. Links, for example, still matter, and brand names have increasingly mattered.
Training on massive amounts of content alone, like AI does, isn’t going to be enough. When the cost of content development gets increasingly closer to zero, the amount of content gets closer to infinite.
How can any system determine what the best content is? Google has been leading with this technology since it started, and despite some difficulty in the last few years, it has the best chance of getting it right.
Despite the massive amount of content online that Google crawls, Google only keeps a portion of that content in its index. Why? because it wants to keep what it deems valuable to users based on what it knows about the content.
So SEO is no longer about generating enough content. It’s about generating the right content, and getting it indexed so that it can be found and served up in the results, even if only as citations.
Let’s break down what this means for businesses, marketers, and search as a marketing channel.
There’s a clear trend: Brands that brag about using AI to pump out tons of content fast might initially discuss seeing traffic or search visibility skyrocketing… but then the overall traffic plummets quickly.
A great example is the now-infamous SEO Heist Kill. Here’s what happened:
Google has stated that it isn’t against AI-generated content but does prioritize quality content, which is defined as helpful, reliable, and people-first.
Their Helpful Content Update (HCU) from September of 2023 implemented ranking systems designed to prioritize helpful and original content. This includes expert-led content from subject matter experts that offers new ideas, actionable tips, and links to reliable data sources (if relevant).
The problem with AI content, of course, is that it only regurgitates existing content; it never actually creates anything new. And again, it’s prone to lacking nuance or creating inaccuracies.
While AI is very useful in developing content, for example, as a brainstorming tool, many brands using AI for content are using it as a core tool and not as a supporting one, resulting in low-quality content. In most cases, AI content requires major human overhauls from skilled content writers, SEO experts, and copyeditors.
AI and search enhancers like SGE are here to stay. There’s no getting around that.
So while even highly anxious marketers can’t wish it away, we can try to optimize for it by continually creating reliable, valuable content.
So, there is some good news: Good SEOs focused on mostly white-hat tactics and strong content creation need to do more of what they’re already doing. That will stay valuable and impactful.
Here’s our recommendation on how to do that:
Google’s EEAT prioritizes content with the following qualities:
The EEAT is a good guide for brands generating content to connect with their target audience. It boils down to having accurate content that provides expert advice from people who know what they’re talking about.
Information gain, first cited by Bill Slawsky in 2020 based on his tireless reviews of Google Patent Applications, is now more important than ever. It’s about creating content that brings new information to the table.
This is something that only humans can do.
AI can’t create new information in content. It only regurgitates variations of what’s already been published, sometimes not accurately. It doesn’t have human insights, creativity, or originality and can never match human first-hand expertise.
See a pattern here? Look at the similarity between information Gain and the new E in EEAT, “Experience.”
As marketers looking to gain awareness in the information economy, we need to find ways to bring new knowledge to the table. This may look like any of the following:
Don’t be a copycat. You can look at what top creators are producing—this is actually a core part of our manual processes for SEO research and content creation—but use that information so you know how to offer more than what’s already there.
Understanding your customers’ pain points will be key here. AI likely can’t predict a reader’s emotional response— but humans can. Take full advantage of that to rank better and potentially drive conversions.
Long-tail content that offers value to readers— particularly with highly specific, expert experience-driven tips and advice— is more important than ever before.
When users want answers about alternative financing for buying their first home, for example, they don’t want a quick AI-generated answer; they want long-form content that explains their options and the pros and cons of each. And they’re not going to search for “mortgage”—they’ll search for “alternative financing for first home” or “first home purchase non-traditional mortgage.”
Targeting long-tail keywords helps you create niche content that is inherently valuable to people looking for it.
This also aligns with how SGE is reacting to long-tail keywords. According to SE Rankings SGE Study, long-tail keyword searches increasingly show SGE in results. The longer the query, the more likely Google is to show an SGE Response— and optimizing for that can help you show up in that response.
Longer queries with eight, nine, and ten words are most likely to show SGE responses.
For the longest time, we’ve been targeting high-volume queries as an industry because that’s the “prize.” The reality is, that a lot of this traffic doesn’t convert well. Web searchers are increasingly making longer and longer searches to get more specific before finally converting.
Here’s where AI can help you target thousands upon thousands of keywords— and actually do it well:
Keep in mind, though, that as everything becomes more complex, more and more expertise is required to create and implement effective strategies.
The Paradox of Targeting the Long Tail for TrafficAs an astute marketer, you may wonder how you will get more traffic by targeting very low search volume queries, and that’s a great question! While most marketers target the highest-volume queries for traffic, most search traffic comes from the sum of all the related long-tail queries. The hurdle to jump over is you need so much more content to target it all! Your content can’t just regurgitate the same content with different keywords injected. You need to provide actual answers to all the different angles and questions people might have. It sounds like a lot of work, right? Yes, but maybe less than you think when you have a great framework, process, people, and technology in place to get it done. And the results are worth it. |
Content hubs allow you to work with SGE instead of working against it.
Google and future AI tools want very specific content that answers long-tail questions with unique human experiences.
Anticipating what people want and creating this content as part of your strategy will provide the references the machines are looking to surface and generate increasing topical authority for your site.
And having relevant content designed to improve the customer experience and build relationships with your brand is good marketing.
Well-researched, organized, and internally linked hubs will:
To do it well requires new ways of thinking about content development and management. The days of publishing single-topic pillar pages, or one post per week or month, and hitting the same points over and over are, well, over.
We need to prioritize quality and experience. We can no longer leave it up to a writer without putting in the work on the data and analysis of what content we need, our customers need.
This means we need new ways to generate unique ideas and angles and new ways to analyze the data to ensure we’re creating the most valuable content in the best order.
The new content marketing strategy includes processes for:
Yes, this means we will be spending as much time analyzing data and reviewing and refreshing old content as creating new content.
Finally, we cannot slack on Distribution. Getting distribution for our content is a vital part of content marketing, and it isn’t changing—in fact, it’s becoming even more important.
It’s likely that AI-generated overviews will become the new normal in information retrieval. We don't yet know whether these overviews will simply augment search results or completely replace them.
However, if AI summaries are typically the first piece of content encountered, the new question is, “How do we get into the AI Summary?”.
When you think about it, the problem of getting into the AI summary is basically the same problem we’ve been facing in SEO since the beginning of the search.
We need the highest-quality, most specific content with the most authority. We want to be constantly crawled and linked from relevant and popular sources.
Therefore it’s critical to keep building inroads to your website. Consider new ways to increase online visibility and distribution of your content, including:
So, what’s coming around the corner? We don’t know exactly what SEO will look like in a post-AI/SGE world, but some age-old concepts can help guide us into the future:
Obsess about the customer experience
More than ever, we must create content intended for real people. Let’s stop creating content solely because that’s what we think will rank, and create content that we would want to find.
Tell the story. Answer the questions. Get deep and specific. Share your expertise. Deliver the value.
Build real connections
No matter what the current search technology is, building real inroads to your website and content will always be the way to attract more visitors. At the end of the day, we want to get in front of humans more than we need to get in front of the machines.
More revenue comes from getting in front of the right people
Even though AI may reduce top-of-funnel traffic, more search volume never automatically translated to more revenue, just as less traffic also necessarily meant fewer customers.
Long-tail traffic may have slightly lower search traffic volume, but it also typically has a higher cost per click (CPC) and is higher converting. At the same time, with well-connected, high-quality, and specific content, we’ve seen traffic increase substantially after implementing the strategies in this post.
It’s incredibly common to obsess over high-volume keywords, but that’s not the only thing to focus on. We’ve seen countless clients lose the top-of-funnel keyword rankings without losing any conversions.
And, as we enter a lower-click environment, those who do click are likely to be higher-intent. This means more conversions from the clicks you do get.
Need help with your SEO and content strategies? Inquire about our SEO services!